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March 1, 2006 (Reuters) WASHINGTON - The lethal avian flu that is spreading rapidly around the world could soon infect wild birds and domesticated flocks in the United States, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said on Wednesday.
In testimony to a congressional panel on his agency’s budget for combating a possible avian flu outbreak among humans, Leavitt told senators that no one knows when or if the virus will pose a threat to people. But, he said, “it’s just a matter of time -- it may be very soon” when wild birds and possibly poultry flocks contract the disease.
When the pandemic hits
what can you expect?
According to the World Health Organization’s website dated 2/7/06:
- Widespread illness will occur.
Because most people will have no immunity to the pandemic virus, infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than during seasonal epidemics of normal influenza. Current projections for the next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world's population will require some form of medical care. Few countries have the staff, facilities, equipment, and hospital beds needed to cope with large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill.
- Medical supplies will be inadequate.
Supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs - the two most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic - will be inadequate in all countries. On present trends, many developing countries will have no access to vaccines throughout the duration of a pandemic.
- Large numbers of deaths will occur.
WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate - from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths - because it provides a useful and plausible planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher.
- Economic and social disruption will be great.
High rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these will contribute to social and economic disruption. Social and economic disruptions could be temporary, but may be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications.
3/17/06 RENOWNED bird flu expert Robert Webster told ABC's World News Tonight that there were "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," and "society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. . . . I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."
Robert Webster is the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., and is credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
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